UFC Fight Night 106 Picks – DraftKings

UFC Fight Night 106 Picks

The UFC is back this weekend with an amazingly stacked card, especially for a fight night card. This weekend is UFC Fight Night 106 – Fortaleza in Brazil. As with any card taken place in Brazil, it’s stacked with a lot of top end talent from the home country. I spent the day reviewing the fights and my UFC Fight Night 106 Picks for DraftKings are in.

DraftKings has done a great job with setting the Salaries for this card, providing plenty opportunities for Underdog Picks, Value Picks and even some Lock Picks(Fighters Almost Guaranteed to win).

Lets jump right into my DraftKings UFC Fight Night 106 Picks:

 

Underdog Picks

***Top Underdog Pick ***

Davi Ramos $7,400 – Elite Grappler 2015 ADCC Champion Ramos will be making his UFC Debut this Saturday night. Ramos who is normally a lightweight will be stepping up to welterweight on short notice to take on Sergio Moraes. Ramos will be giving up the size advantage coming in giving up 4 inches in height but will make up for it with elite speed, quickness & grappling skills. He has a quick jab and can throw powerful bombs as well which he uses to transition to a very good takedowns.

Once on top Ramos really shines as his top game is as good as it comes. Ramos has the ability to land flying arm bars and other submission attempts while his opponent is laying down which is really unique and honestly is next level submission tactics.

His opponent Moraes is no slouch and the favorite to win the fight however talent wise he may be inferior but definitely owns a larger skill set and veteran savvy. Moraes is an excellent grappler in his own right and can also pull off submissions. His wrestling is good however he rarely goes for a takedown. I see Ramos being able to get Moraes on his back using his quickness linking his jab and powerful punches into takedowns. Once on top I could see a 2nd or 3rd round submission or at least a decision win.

 

 

Beneil Dariush $7,500 – Dariush is up against the best striker in the light weigh division Edson Barboza. Dariush is a pressure fighters with very good striking but not nearly as good as Barboza however Barboza has losses to opponents who were able to pressure him. Barboza has struggled with pressure fighters in the past however has recently improved in this area beating a declining Melendez in a decision win.

This is an extremely close matchup but one Dariush could pull out a decision win and potential a submission if he gets Barboza to the ground and can keep him there. While Barboza is an amazing counter striker and has lethal kicks, Dariush excels in the ground game with good control and advancing ability which usually allows him to quick catch an opponent off guard with submission attempts.

If Dariush is able to pull this one out, it will depend on his ability to pressure Barboza into a clinch and either trip or drag him to the ground. Unfortunately Dariush’s take downs are not that good, so using the clinch will be vital for him in this fight. For $7,500, Dariush is a good tournament play as he will probably not be picked by many players.

 

Gian Villante $7,700 – Villante will be taking on the declining Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in the co main event. A few years ago when Rua was in his prime there would be no way I would be picking Villante as an underdog pick. However, Rua has obviously slowed down recently even though he is on a two fight win streak. His win over Corey Anderson was controversial and in my opinion Anderson won what was a very close fight.

Villante is the bigger man and has top end striking skills backed up by excellent wrestling that he rarely uses but allows him to prevent opponents from taking him down. With that said, the majority of this fight should be seen standing between the two light heavy weights. At this point in Rua’s career he has become a counter striker with limited foot work and movement which usually puts him in slug fests and that’s exactly what you don’t want to be in with a fighter like Villante.

While Shogun has many tricks in his toolbox and is favored to win the fight I sense that his weak chin will fail him if Villante lands a powerful shot. The only way I see Villante losing this fight is if he gases out as he tends to sprint in the 1st two rounds and by the 3rd is depleted of his energy leaving the door open for Rua to win by decision if he out points him. If Villante pulls out the win, chances are it will be by KO in the 1st or 2nd which is exactly the type of results you look for in a sleeper for tournament play. The only downside is Villante will probably have a high owned percentage for tournament play.

 

Ray Borg $7,800 – What could easily be fight of the night honors, #8 Flyweight Ray Borg will be facing #3 Jussier Formiga. This fight is evenly matched between a Rising Borg and a verteran in Formiga who has leveled off with his potential. Formiga has the greater skillset and more experience fighting top competition but is now being seen as the gatekeeper to the elite fly weight competition after taking loses to Cejudo, Benavidez and Dodson.

Both fighters are excellent grapplers and both excel in taking their opponents back which could allow either fighters to land a submission from this position. However, I think this fight will go to a decision. Formiga is a low output striker which means if Borg keeps the fight standing as much as possible he should be able to out point Formiga. I’d only take Borg if for some reason are not comfortable with the other sleepers I mentioned as this fight is basically a toss up with a slight edge to Formiga due to experience.

Value Picks

Kevin Lee $8,300 – Mr. Lee is an elite young athletic specimen who has solid stand up skills and dynamic quick takedowns going up a veteran in Francisco Trinaldo who has been on a tear as of late albeit against lesser competition .

Trinaldo is a solid technical striker and might a slight advantage on the feet however his takedown defense is just above average which is the opening a young and quick Kevin Lee will take advantage of to control the fight.

As long as Lee doesn’t get caught by a powerful Trinaldo shot which I don’t see happening, he should be able to get a decesion win while racking up points off of strikes, takedowns and advances. He is a great play for the price of $8,300.

 

Rani Yahya $8,600 – Not the flashiest of fighters but his fighting style is usually a safe pick against a fighter with poor takedown defense. Yahya’s game plan is simple, take you down and control you while working for a submission or a decision win. Going up against a Joe Soto and his 44% takedown defense fit the bill to make Rani Yahya a nice value pick with a high chance of winning.

Even with decision wins Yahya racks up enough points with scoring takedowns and advances. He won’t land a lot of strikes but if Yahya needs to land strikes, chances are he isn’t going to win the fight.

I see Yahya being able to take Soto down enough to secure a victory. I almost put Yahya in my lock picks however with the low salary it seemed more fitting to put him in the value section.

 

Lock Picks

Michel Prazeres $8,900 – Prazeres easily has the most advantageous matchup on the entire card going up against Joshua Burkman who has only won 1 fight in his last 9 walks into the octagon. That 1 win? A decision win against Noons three fights ago. Since then Burkman has gone on to lose his last two fights.

Prazeres is a Bull with good striking and powerful clinch game leading to takedowns. Quite honeslt he is a better fighter than Burkman and I don’t see how Burkman wins this fight. I’d give Burkman a 5% chance to win. The only thing he has going for him is that his back is against the wall. If he loses he will likely be cut by the UFC so he will be swinging for the fences if he cares about his career.

 

Kelvin Gastelum $9,500 – Gastelum has looked amazing since moving up to middleweight. He is taking on the Phenom Vitor Belfort in the main event of the night. Vitor Belfort has been on the decline ever since USADA testing clamped down and prevented Belfort from using testosterone replacement therapy. Even so, Belfort is always dangerous. It’s Gastelum prowess and ever increasing potential which makes him a lock to win this fight.

Gastelum’s striking game has improved leaps and bounds which was shown in his dismantling of Tim Kennedy. He was doing so good on the feet that he didn’t even need to take Kennedy down which is Gastelum’s usual bread and butter. With Vitor being an elite striker I see Gastelum using his striking to takedown a Vitor that is declining with age and has always had suspect takedown defense. From there Gastelum should use ground and pound until the Phenom can’t take it anymore or the Ref calls the fight.

Belfort’s only hope is to catch Kelvin with one of his old school signature blitz attacks or landing a high kick. Unfortunately Gastelum’s defense is too good and he will easily be able to take Vitor down if he attempts a blitz attack which leads me to believe won’t even try and instead hope to land a counter shot. As mentioned above Gastelum’s striking defense is very good. Gastelum takes out the gatekeeper and moves his way into the elite of the division.

Well there ya have it folks! Use these picks to create a winning DraftKings lineup. If you’re new to DraftKings or looking to improve your DraftKings MMA Strategy be sure to check out my UFC Fantasy – Ultimate DraftKings MMA Strategy Guide

Also let me know what you think of my UFC Fight Night 106 picks in the comments below and be sure to share your own insight on the fights this weekend.

-Brian Burch

 

 

About The Author

Burchy

My name is Burch, people call me Burchy! Basically I’m a Man of Wit and Wisdom Embarking on Chaotic Journey, Blame it on the Elves! I have a purpose, I shall fulfill this purpose!
I make all types of videos: Comedy, Stand Up Comedy, Skits, Parodies, Rants, Fitness, Nutrition, Philosophical Ideas, Self Improvement; Relationship, Attraction and Seduction Tips; and yes even videos about Sex! So go grab a condom! Let’s do this!
I make my videos to entertain, inspire and enlighten you! Hopefully you can gain some wisdom from me or laugh at my insanity, your choice fuck face ;) Ether way… I’m here for you! Seriously… I AM! So enjoy fukkers, enjoy! Enjoy it like you would enjoy chewing a good piece of meat! With A1 Sauce! O and make sure you…. Stay Epic!

Say Something Will Ya!